Scouting grades 20–80
55Fastball
55Slider
50Curveball
55Changeup
55Control
Carlson has a strong, workhorse 6-3, 230-pound frame. There may not be much upside left in the body, but it was a very intriguing, polished “now” product.
Carlson is up to 97, and will tend to live in the 92-96 range It’s not the most metrically appealing fastball, and one that can at times fall off in terms of velocity and command as he works later in games, but Carlson shows exceptional feel for working that pitch to both halves of the plate and putting it where he wanted. It may be plus command projection for that pitch.
Carlson’s breaking balls are solid, with the slider being his best: a tight, hard gyro shape in the low 80s that he tunnels well off of the fastball to right-handed hitters. He can also mix in a mid-80s cutter that bridges the arsenal well. A 79-82 mph changeup with some depth and fade may be his best secondary, a pitch that he sells with good arm speed and showed feel for at the bottom of the zone.
Carlson’s extension sits right around 6’2”-6’4” on Trackman, he moves decently well and has the type of command to where it’s easy to see him starting long-term. This may not be the highest ceiling arm in the class, but one that could still have consideration as a day one pick come July.
